HomeMy WebLinkAbout2020 Oct 14 TAC MeetingDRAFT
Ukiah Valley Groundwater
Sustainability Plan Development
Update
October 14, 2020
Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency
Technical Advisory Committee
DRAFT
◼Outreach Meetings Update
◼GSP Writing and Review:
⚫Review and commenting of draft Chapter 2 and schedule for next
deliverables
⚫Revised proposed schedule for chapter delivery and review
◼Sustainable Management Criteria and Monitoring Network
Design: Chronic Lowering of GW Levels and SW depletion
◼Future Scenarios
Outline
DRAFT
◼Outreach Meetings Update
◼GSP Writing and Review:
⚫Review and commenting of draft Chapter 2 and schedule for next
deliverables
⚫Revised proposed schedule for chapter delivery and review
◼Sustainable Management Criteria and Monitoring Network
Design: Chronic Lowering of GW Levels and SW depletion
◼Future Scenarios
Outline
DRAFT
Status Update
◼Public meeting
⚫September 29th (Zoom in English and Spanish). Recordings are available on County’s
YouTube account
◼Tribal meeting
⚫October 19th 6-8 PM. Agenda and Presentation will be posted soon.
◼Stakeholder interviews
⚫1-on-1 interviews: 2nd half of October. Interviews started with Sonoma Water and we will
be scheduling further calls with them for future scenarios.
⚫PVP working group meeting: September 30th.
◼TSS and instrumentation
⚫Streamgage installation and well instrumentation trips postponed due to fires and air
quality/temperature but will happen this week.
⚫Drilling sites were approved by the School District.
DRAFT
◼Outreach Meetings Update
◼GSP Writing and Review:
⚫Review and commenting of draft Chapter 2 and schedule for next
deliverables
⚫Revised proposed schedule for chapter delivery and review
◼Sustainable Management Criteria and Monitoring Network
Design: Chronic Lowering of GW Levels and SW depletion
◼Future Scenarios
Outline
DRAFT
GSP Writing and Review
◼Content review is the main focus of the review and commenting process at this stage
Missing Subsection Delivery (By the End of month)
Jurisdictional Areas and Land Use: Small water districts’ information to be filled November 2020
Water Resources Monitoring and Management Programs: We need feedback November 2020
County Zoning Plan October 2020
GW contamination, cleanup, and migration: We need your feedback November 2020
Impacts on GDEs Will be written as we progress (Feb 2021)
Updated CommPlan (Notice and Communication)November Board Meeting
Change in GW Storage Will be written as we progress (Feb 2021)
Identification of Interconnected Surface Water Systems Will be written as we progress (Feb 2021)
Identification of Groundwater-dependent Ecosystems Will be written as we progress (Feb 2021)
Water Budget January 2021
Modeling Appendix January 2021
Water Quality Appendix November 2021
DRAFT
GSP Writing and Review
Proposed schedule to deliver the next chapters and subsections:
◼Chapter 3: Sustainability Management Criteria
⚫Individual SMCs will be delivered as they are planned. Ex. Water Quality and Subsidence SMC will be delivered
by the end of Oct 2020
◼Chapter 4: Projects and Management Actions
⚫Planned to be done and delivered by Apr-May 2021
◼Chapter 5: Plan Implementation
⚫Planned to be delivered by June 2021
⚫Will be most likely delivered as part of the draft GSP rollout
DRAFT
◼Outreach Meetings Update
◼GSP Writing and Review:
⚫Review and commenting of draft Chapter 2 and schedule for next
deliverables
⚫Revised proposed schedule for chapter delivery and review
◼Sustainable Management Criteria and Monitoring Network
Design: Chronic Lowering of GW Levels and SW depletion
◼Future Scenarios
Outline
DRAFT
Sustainability Indicators
✓✓
◼Most can be linked
to groundwater
levels
◼Criteria set for one
can affect others
DRAFT
SMCs within the Context of SGMA and GSP
Goal: Sustainable
Management of Basin
Operate within
Sustainable Yield
Not Experience
Undesirable Results
Set Quantitative
Criteria
Implement Projects and
Management Action
SM
C
s
DRAFT
Establishing SMCs
Picture Sourced from Corning
Subbasin Presentation
DRAFT
SMCs Initial Design Process:
◼For each
sustainability
indicator:
Narrative
statement
describing
conditions
that GSA
wants to
avoid
Sets the
stage for
developing
quantitative
SMC metric
Define
Appropriate
Geographic Area
DRAFT
SMCs Initial Design Process:
◼For each
sustainability
indicator:
Define
Appropriate
Geographic Area
•Analysis and written
interpretation of the information,
data, and rationale used to set the
MTs
•Describe the relationship
between each SI’s own MTs and
with other Sis’ MTs
•How MTs would avoid impacts
to adjacent basins
•How they impact beneficial uses
and users
•How state, local, and federal
standard relate to MTs.
•Monitoring network designed to
measure MTs.
DRAFT •Undesirable results occur when conditions
related to any of the six SIs become
significant and unreasonable.
•Will be used by DWR to determine whether
the sustainability goal has been achieved.
•It should be defined based on MTs. GSA has
significant flexibility.
•But it should be clear how impacts to
beneficial uses and users were considered.
SMCs Initial Design Process:
◼For each
sustainability
indicator:
Define
Appropriate
Geographic Area
DRAFT
SMCs Initial Design Process:
◼For each
sustainability
indicator:
Define
Appropriate
Geographic Area
•Quantitative goals that
reflect the basin’s
desired groundwater
conditions.
•Should be set to provide
a margin of operational
flexibility between MT
and MO to
accommodate droughts,
climate change, projects,
etc.
DRAFT
Potential Paths to Sustainability
DWR, 2016, Sustainable Management Criteria BMP
DRAFT
SMC at Representative Monitoring Point
Maintain Sustainability for the next 30 years
DWR, 2016, Sustainable Management Criteria BMP
DRAFT
Monitoring Networks
◼Why is it important?
⚫Measures progress toward the achievement of any management goal
⚫Sustainability criteria are defined based on the components of the monitoring
network
◼May be different for each sustainability indicator
◼Must have sufficient temporal frequency and spatial distribution to:
⚫demonstrate short-term, seasonal, and long-term trends in basin conditions
⚫demonstrate progress toward achieving measurable objectives
⚫monitor impacts to the beneficial uses or users of groundwater
⚫monitor changes in groundwater conditions relative to Mos and MTs
⚫quantify annual changes in water budget components
DRAFT
Monitoring Networks: Density and Extent
De
t
e
r
m
i
n
i
n
g
F
a
c
t
o
r
s
Aquifer Characteristics
GW pumpage and use
Impacts to BUs
Fluctuation and
variability
Proximity to projects
or adjacent basins
Multi-SI monitoring
Access and safety
“There is no definitive rule for the density of
groundwater monitoring points needed in a basin.”
UVGB: 59 sq miles
DRAFT
Monitoring Networks: Density and Extent
Aquifer I
Aquifer II
Aquifer III
“There is no definitive rule for
the density of groundwater
monitoring points needed in a
basin.”
DRAFT
Representative Monitoring Points
◼A series of RMPs or a single RMP
may be adequate to characterize a
management area or basin.
◼RMPs should demonstrate similar
levels, trends, and seasonal
fluctuations to the surrounding
monitoring wells in their represented
area.
The complete monitoring network is represented by
black dots.
DRAFTExisting and Planned Monitoring Network for
Chronic Lowering of Groundwater Levels
◼GW levels will at least be collected in mid-October and mid-March. Frequency
should be increased/adjusted based on the factors discussed.
◼Monitoring data must be sufficient and able to:
⚫map GW depressions, recharge areas, inside and along basin boundaries.
⚫determine changes in storage.
⚫demonstrate the interconnectivity between shallow GW and SW bodies
⚫map the effects of management actions
⚫characterize conditions and monitor adverse impacts as they may affect the beneficial uses
and users identified within the basin.
◼Wells should be dedicated groundwater monitoring wells, preferably, with
known construction information.The selection of wells should be aquifer-
specific and wells that are screened across more than one aquifer should be
avoided where possible.
DRAFTExisting and Planned Monitoring Network for
Chronic Lowering of Groundwater Levels
◼We want to rely on existing CASGEM and what we drill and/or
instrument. We need to discuss with MCRCD and analyze the
wells in detail. From our initial assessments:
⚫Existing:
Max 50 CASGEM wells currently, 2 multi-depth wells (7 total)
40 have well depth and screen interval information, 48 have well depth
8 wells are screened in multiple aquifers or we are not 100% certain
25 Aquifer I: 4 Redwood Valley, 2 Southern Drainage, 14 Southern Ukiah, 5
Central Ukiah
9 Aquifer 2: 4 Redwood Valley, 2 Central Ukiah, 3 Southern Ukiah
6 Aquifer 3: 3 Redwood Valley, 3 Central Ukiah
⚫To be drilled:
3 approved: 1 layer 1 Redwood Valley, 1 Layer 1 and 1 multi-layer in southern
Ukiah
May add 1 multi-layer in Redwood valley and up to 2 in Central Ukiah (1 may be
multi-layer)
DRAFT
SMC: Chronic Lowering of Groundwater Levels
◼All SMCs are interrelated
◼Consider basin conditions. We know we have gaps and model will be used
later but we have to start somewhere and revise.
◼There is no wrong approach if justified by best available scientific and local
knowledge
◼Remember the process:
1.Draft significant and unreasonable condition narrative
2.Set Minimum Thresholds at each RMP
3.Determine undesirable results as a combination of MTs
4.Set Measurable Objectives at each RMP with operational flexibility
5.Identify projects and management actions and assess their effectiveness
6.Iterate 1 to 5 based on new information and model simulations
7.Define path and interim milestones
DRAFTSMC Development:
4. Determine Undesirable Results
◼A GSA can prove sustainability by avoiding Undesirable Results
◼Decide how to combine Minimum Thresholds into Undesirable Results
◼Considerations
⚫Impacts on beneficial users.
⚫What are the types of mitigations that can be enforced?
⚫What projects and management actions will be needed?
◼Iterative process:
⚫How does this undesirable result affect beneficial uses and users of groundwater?
⚫How does this undesirable result affect land use and property interests?
⚫Does the undesirable result adequately characterize conditions that are significant and
unreasonable?
DRAFT
Example Significant and Unreasonable Condition Narrative from
Other GSPs regarding LOWERING GROUNDWATER LEVELS
◼Cuyama Valley Basin
Significant and unreasonable reduction in the long-term viability of domestic, agricultural,
municipal, or environmental uses over the planning and implementation horizon of this GSP.
◼Salinas Valley Basin –180/400 ft Aquifer
Public and stakeholder input identified historically low groundwater elevations as significant
and unreasonable.
•Are at or below the lowest observed groundwater elevations.
•Cause significant financial burden to local agricultural interests.
•Interfere with other sustainability indicators.
◼Santa Cruz Mid-County Basin
A significant number of private, agricultural, industrial, and municipal production wells can no
longer provide enough groundwater to supply beneficial uses.
DRAFT
As a reminder about sustainability indicators…
•Measur able Objective:
Goal that we want to
strive for.
•Minimum Thr eshold:
Quantitative value
reflecting what is
significant and
unreasonable.The line
we don’t want to cr oss.
DRAFT
Sustainability Indicators: Examples from other GSPs
Mid County Santa Cruz
◼Minimum thresholds: set based on the groundwater
elevation required to meet the typical overlying water
demand in the shallowest well in the vicinity of the
RMP (no less than 30 ft below historical levels).
Demand is calculated based on an experimental
worksheet from Kansas Geological Survey.
◼Measurable objectives: the 75th percentile of
historical groundwater elevations for the period of
record of each monitoring point.
◼Interim milestones: Since the measurable objectives
effectively represent current conditions, IMs were set at
the same elevations as measurable objectives.
DRAFT
Sustainability Indicators: Examples from other GSPs
Cuyama
◼Measurable objectives: set equal to the measurement taken closest to (but
not before) January 1, 2015 and not after April 30, 2015.
◼Minimum thresholds: defined different regions and took the following
approaches based on the regions:
1.The MT was calculated by subtracting 5 years of groundwater storage from the MO, which
was calculated by finding the groundwater level declines during the 2013 -2018 drought.
2.The MT was calculated by taking the total historical range of recorded groundwater levels
and used 35% of the range. This 35% was then added below the MO.
◼Interim milestones: were set to equal the MT in all incremental years between
2020 and 2040.
DRAFT
Sustainability Indicators: Examples from other GSPs
Greater Kaweah
▪Minimum thresholds: set at water level
projections for 2040 using same trend in GW
levels from 2006 to 2016, which represents a
more current trend, the recent groundwater
pumping patterns and the historic five-year
drought (2012-2016).
▪Measurable objectives: The intersection of the groundwater level projection
and 2030, a point midway through the implementation period, was selected
as the measurable objective for each well.
▪Interim milestones: were established in 2025, 2030, and 2035 to measure
progress at these time intervals regarding groundwater level trends.
DRAFTSMC Development:
4. Determine Undesirable Results
◼Example: Undesirable result is defined as 3 wells falling below
MTs. Both pictures show undesirable result. However, left is still
managed sustainably.
DRAFT
Looking at UVGB
Based on our limited information we
guessed they are screened in the first aquifer,
but we need to investigate
DRAFT
Looking at UVGB
DRAFT
Looking at UVGB
DRAFT
Looking at UVGB
DRAFT
Aquifer I
◼Trends: No significant trend can be seen in any region
other than seasonal fluctuations. No declines.
◼Data: Long-term data is scarce.
◼Monitoring Network: We propose to include all newly-
drilled wells plus a subset of wells instrumented with
continuous monitoring (pending agreement) for monthly or
quarterly monitoring/reporting (between 6 to 8 wells).
◼Data Gaps: Some areas in the basin do not have any
wells that should be noted.
◼RMPs: We initially (at least for this discussion) suggest
choosing the shown RMPs for the three regions in the
basin. We recommend switching these RMPs to the newly
drilled wells as soon as enough data is collected, probably
in the first 5 years.
DWR Well 392962N1232047W001
Ukiah Valley-1
DWR Well 15N12W08L001M
Ukiah Valley-10a
DWR Well 391096N1231677W001
DRAFT
Looking at UVGB
DRAFT
Aquifer II
◼Trends: Relatively declining trends in southern Ukiah
Valley. Stable otherwise.
◼Data: Long-term data is not available.
◼Monitoring Network: We propose to include all newly-
multi-screened drilled wells plus a subset of CASGEM
wells (pending agreement) for quarterly to biannual
monitoring/reporting (between 4 to 6 wells).
◼Data Gaps: Some areas in the basin do not have any
wells that should be noted.
◼RMPs: We initially suggest all chosen CASGEM wells to
be used as RMPs. We recommend switching these RMPs
to the newly drilled wells as soon as enough data is
collected, probably in the first 5 years.
DRAFT
Looking at UVGB
DRAFT
Aquifer III
◼Trends: Redwood Valley shows insignificant
inclining trend. Central Ukiah is stable.
◼Data: Long-term data is not available.
◼Monitoring Network: We propose to include all
newly-multi-screened drilled wells plus a subset of
CASGEM wells (pending agreement) for quarterly to
biannual monitoring/reporting (between 2 to 4 wells).
◼RMPs: We initially suggest all chosen CASGEM
wells to be used as RMPs. We recommend switching
these RMPs to the newly drilled wells as soon as
enough data is collected, probably in the first 5
years.
◼Data Gaps: Some areas in the basin do not have any
wells that should be noted.
DRAFT
Setting Sustainable Criteria
◼Consider:
⚫UVB does not suffer from chronic lowering of GW levels, water levels are
relatively stable
⚫Seasonality is very important
⚫This SI is most likely affected by SW Depletion and GDEs
⚫Operational flexibility is very important due to seasonal changes and
stable conditions
⚫Aquifer-specific and region-specific criteria must be set
◼Discuss and decide:
⚫Is there a need for defining hydrogeologic zones or management areas?
⚫What is the most suitable method(s) applicable to UVB
⚫Trend may not be appropriately applicable to all zones in UVB
DRAFT
Proposed Possible Approaches
◼Minimum Thresholds:
⚫For declining trends, project GW levels in 2042 and set that as MT.
⚫Minimum historical measurement.
⚫Levels close to January 1, 2015 minus a percentage of the seasonal variation
or historical range.
⚫Average historical level minus the maximum continuous multi-year drawdown
due to droughts
◼Measurable Objective:
⚫Average of historical measurements
⚫The 75th percentile of historical GW levels for the period of record.
⚫The measurement taken closest to but not before January 1, 2015.
DRAFT
Southern Ukiah Valley -15N12W34Q001M (Aquifer I)
MO
DTW-
Year-round
(ft)
DTW–
Low
Season(ft)
DTW–
High
Season(ft)
Average of
historical -26 -33.3 -18.9
75th percentile of
historical range -34 -34.8 -22.1
March 25, 2015 -23.5
MT DTW (ft)
Trend -36
Historical Min -37.2
Fall 2015 minus 25% of
average historical range -39.6
Fall 2015 minus 25% of
maximum seasonal range -39.6
Fall 2015-maximum
continuous drawdown 39.3
DRAFT
Southern Ukiah Valley -15N12W34Q001M (Aquifer I)
44
MO DTW-Year-
round (ft)
DTW–
Low
Season(ft)
DTW–
High
Season(ft)
Average of
historical -21.8 -24.9 -18.9
75th percentile of
historical range -24.9 -26.3 -20.5
March 25, 2015 -20.3
MT DTW (ft)
Trend -25
Historical Min -30.1
Fall 2015 minus 25% of average
historical range -31.6
Fall 2015 minus 25% of maximum
seasonal range -31.6
Fall 2015-maximum continuous
drawdown 33.2
DRAFT
Redwood Valley -392962N1232047W001 (Aquifer I)
45
MO DTW-Year-
round (ft)
DTW–
Low
Season(ft)
DTW–
High
Season(ft)
Average of
historical -13.6 -18.6 -9.2
75th percentile of
historical range -15.5 -16.9 -10.3
March 25, 2015 -12
MT DTW (ft)
Trend +5.64
Historical Min -57.8 (-17.4)
Fall 2015 minus 25% of average
historical range -19.3
Fall 2015 minus 25% of maximum
seasonal range -19.3
Fall 2015-maximum continuous
drawdown -22.6
392962N1232047W001
DRAFT
Southern Ukiah Valley –UV-29a (Aquifer II)
46
MO DTW-Year-
round (ft)
DTW–
Low
Season(ft)
DTW–
High
Season(ft)
Average of
historical -18.5 -15 -22
75th percentile of
historical range -22.5 -22.5 -16.5
April 15, 2016 -13.745
MT DTW (ft)
Trend -53.5
Historical Min -22.5
Fall 2016 minus 25% of average
historical range -22.2
Fall 2016 minus 25% of maximum
seasonal range -22.1
Fall 2016-maximum continuous
drawdown -24.5
Ukiah Valley-29a
DRAFTChronic Lowering of Groundwater Level Undesirable
Result
◼Decide how to combine Minimum Thresholds into Undesirable
Results
◼Iterative process:
⚫How does this undesirable result affect beneficial uses and users of
groundwater?
⚫How does this undesirable result affect land use and property interests?
⚫Does the undesirable result adequately characterize conditions that are
significant and unreasonable?
DRAFT
Groundwater Level Interim Milestones
◼Determines the path to sustainability and if the GSP is in
compliance.
◼Is set in 5-year increments.
◼Possible approaches:
⚫If trend is used, interim milestones can be extrapolated.
⚫If GW levels are stable, interim milestones can be set at or close to MO
with a trend that provides operational flexibility.
⚫Cuyama set milestones at equal to MT for all increments presumably not
to fall out of compliance.
DRAFT
◼Outreach Meetings Update
◼GSP Writing and Review:
⚫Review and commenting of draft Chapter 2 and schedule for next
deliverables
⚫Revised proposed schedule for chapter delivery and review
◼Sustainable Management Criteria and Monitoring Network
Design: Chronic Lowering of GW Levels and SW depletion
◼Future Scenarios
Outline
DRAFT
Future Scenario Survey: Future Baseline
◼In order to generate a representative future baseline scenario, we need to form a
50-year period from the basin’s historical record. What would be the most
representative 50-year baseline?
Major Comments:
◼Last 50-years may be the least
conservative because id does not take into
account the most recent period. 25 is a bit
of a middle ground.
◼Either 25-50 year periods are fine but we
should look at how the water years are
assigned with the Gamma Distribution.
DRAFT
Future Scenario Survey: Climate change here
◼Do you agree with using the DWR recommended approach to conduct the climate
change simulations for the Ukiah Valley Basin GSP? If not, please provide your
suggestion while also considering that additional time and budget needed to
conduct different approaches may become significant.
Major Comments:
◼A transient method would be more
appropriate for evaluating potential impacts
to Lake Mendocino and surface water flows
in the main stem Russian River.
◼Include additional climate change
simulations as may be available to the
consultants and deemed relevant for this
basin.
DRAFT
Future Scenario Survey: Changes to PVP
◼There is an expectation that PVP operations would change during the
implementation period of the GSP. This scenario, or a set of scenarios, would
simulate how those changes would impact the basin and the beneficial uses.
Major Comments:
◼All respondents say it is helpful and we can run Sonoma Water
scenarios.
◼No diversion, partial (winter only) diversion, and run of the river
scenario should be run.
◼Everybody agrees it would not be immediate, responses from 5 to
15 years.
◼Everybody thinks we should combine it with other scenarios,
including climate change, fish flow habitat,
DRAFT
Future Scenario Survey: Changes to PVP
◼A PVP Scenarios working group was convened and different
approaches were discussed.
◼It was suggested that LWA conducts bookending scenarios to
gauge the impacts to the extent possible.
◼Final 3 scenarios that were agreed upon are:
⚫Removal of the dam and no additional flows (worst-case scenario)
⚫No change
⚫Run of the river
◼All scenarios will be set up to happen in 15 years
◼Difficult issue is to estimate appropriate flows from CVD and PVP
for different scenarios.
DRAFT
Future Scenario Survey: Changes in Land Use and Ag
◼There is a general expectation that cannabis cultivation would grow in the basin.
This scenario would simulate such changes and how they might affect the water
resources and beneficial uses within the basin.
Major Comments:
◼Majority of respondents say it is not helpful/maybe helpful or not sure.
◼Review Upper Russian River/Lake Mendocino Reliability report.
◼Increased utilization of water rights in 20 years may cover for these
scenarios.
DRAFTFuture Scenario Survey: Urban expansion, population
growth, and increase in demand
◼These three changes are codependent and will happen to some extent
according to historical trends. This scenario would show the extent of the
changes and how they would impact the basin, its water resources, and
beneficial uses.
Major Comments:
◼Majority of respondents say it is a helpful scenario.
◼Review Upper Russian River/Lake Mendocino Reliability report.
◼Not everyone agrees on the trend or if historical trends are
representative.
◼Combine with PVP, land conversion, and climate change.
DRAFT
Future Scenario Survey: Recharge projects
◼There has been a consensus among TAC members on implementing recharge
projects in the future. This scenario would simulate possible recharge projects
and how they would impact the basin.
Major Comments:
◼Majority of respondents say it is a helpful scenario.
◼Scale and location answer did not converge.
◼Step-wise and in small steps was emphasized for when it may happen.
◼Combine with PVP, RW, Ag land conversion, and climate change.
DRAFTFuture Scenario Survey: Changes in Lake Mendocino
Release
◼Changes in Lake Mendocino releases are expected to happen due to FIRO and
other regulatory measures. This scenario would simulate how these changes
would impact the basin.
Major Comments:
◼Majority of respondents say it is a helpful scenario.
◼Most say to coordinate with Sonoma to the extent feasible.
◼Step-wise and in small steps was emphasized for when it may happen.
◼Combine with PVP, RW, Ag land conversion, and climate change.
DRAFT
Future Scenario Survey: Recycled Water
◼City of Ukiah has been implementing its Recycled Water project and is
scheduled to expand it in the near future. This scenario would simulate the
impacts of increased Recycled Water use within the basin.
Major Comments:
◼Majority of respondents say it is a helpful scenario.
◼Follow the City’s plan.
DRAFTScenario What we are
required to have
What we have now
or planned as a
default to have
Proposed
Improvements (may
or may not be
feasible)
What is nice and
ideal to have (mostly
are not feasible)
Future
Baseline A 50-year representation
50-year repeat of historical
baseline (could be
changed to two 25-year)
Coordinate with Sonoma
Water to use the same
arrangement
A 50-year period that best
represents the hydroclimate
conditions and captures
future expectations
Climate
Change
Capture impacts of climate
change using best
available science and
knowledge
2 DWR provided climate
period analyses 2030 &
2070
Transient simulation of 50-
year period using one
GCM/RCP/Downscaling
method scenario used in
Sonoma basins
A catalogue of transient
simulations using all or many
of the 20 GCM/RCP
scenarios DWR used
CVD
Releases
Best available science and
information: forecast
appropriate releases for
each scenario
Historical and future
baseline using hard input
measured by gages
Using Sonoma ResSim or
program and its outputs:
requires matching climate
data and diversions
Coupled GSFLOW with
ResSim or modified
ResSim/Program with our
data to produce accurate
releases
PVP
PVP outputs based on
reasonable possibilities to
assist with setting SMCs
and developing
management actions
Historical/future baseline
input to basin from gages
+ worst case scenario of
no inputs
Using Sonoma ResSim and
its scenarios for outputs:
requires matching climate
data and diversions
Compatible ResSim for run-
of-the-river and climate
change scenarios with
GSFLOW
Overall
for future
scenarios
Best available science and
accurate representation of
basin and possibilities to
develop SMCs and MAs
We are reliant on historical
inputs and need to find a
reasonable way to
produce CVD and PVP
future outputs
To always couple CVD
releases and mostly climate
change scenarios based on
what Sonoma has produced
Compatible CVD and PVP
release data with
hydroclimate data we use in
GSFLOW for all scenarios
Can be fit in
our current
budget
Depending on
input data and
conditions may
be doable or
may be time-
consuming and
not feasible
Would add a
month or more
of work
It will be long
and most
probably
infeasible
DRAFT
Future Scenarios Discussion
◼Ideal scenarios (purple tasks) are not required but very nice to have. They
could be run for the GSP in a longer horizon, ex. for the next interim
milestone but will not be feasible to conduct for this round of GSP submittal.
◼With the current timeline, we will be able to probably conduct 1 or maybe 2
orange/red tasks and still successfully submit the GSP in time.
◼Orange tasks’ feasibility heavily depend on the type of input data available
and the fit it provides into the model. If taken on, we may need to accept
some uncertainty due to simplifications to be able to succeed.
DRAFTSMC Introduction -Depletion of Interconnected Surface
Waters
◼The minimum threshold metric for depletion of interconnected surface
waters shall be a rate or volume of surface water depletions caused by
groundwater use that has adverse impacts on beneficial uses of the surface
water and may lead to undesirable results.
◼Minimum Threshold established for depletions of interconnected surface
water shall be supported by the following:
⚫The location, quantity, and timing of depletions of interconnected surface water.
⚫A description of the GW and SW model used to quantify surface water depletion.
◼GSP Regulations allow GSAs to use groundwater elevation as a proxy metric
for any of the sustainability indicators when setting minimum thresholds and
measurable objectives.
⚫The GSP must demonstrate that there is a significant correlation between groundwater
levels and the other metrics.
DRAFTSMC Development:
1. Significant and Unreasonable Conditions
◼What to Consider:
⚫Who is impacted?
⚫What is the impact? Monetary and non-monetary nature of impacts?
⚫Spatial and temporal extent of the impact
Example Beneficial Users Potential Impact
Recreation
Aquatic habitat
Riparian habitat
•Reduced flow
•Loss of habitat
•Loss/limitation of recreational potential
DRAFT
What is a Groundwater-Dependent Ecosystem?
◼Ecosystems that rely on surface expression of groundwater
⚫Springs
⚫Perennial wetlands
⚫Rivers that are receiving groundwater
◼Ecosystems that rely on subsurface presence of groundwater
⚫phreatophytes
63
‘wetlands’
‘vegetation’
DRAFTConsideration of GDEs as Groundwater Users for
Developing SMC
64
From: TNC 2018
DRAFTWhere are we with regards to
GDEs?
◼We used TNC’s map as a starting
point for identification of GDEs and
discussed in the GW/SW Working
Group
⚫Consensus was that the map is not
accurate
⚫We need your feedback in correcting
the map
◼We presented a satellite imagery
approach to assess GDEs. We are
working based on that methodology
and will present results.
65
DRAFTMonitoring Network Considerations for
Depletion of Interconnected Surface Water
◼The monitoring network shall be able to characterize the following:
⚫Flow conditions including surface water discharge, surface water head, and baseflow
contribution.
⚫Identifying the approximate date and location where ephemeral or intermittent flowing
streams and rivers cease to flow, if applicable.
⚫Temporal change in conditions due to variations in stream discharge and regional
groundwater extraction.
⚫Other factors that may be necessary to identify adverse impacts on beneficial uses of the
surface water.
◼Use existing stream gaging and groundwater level monitoring networks to the
extent possible.
DRAFTMonitoring Network Considerations for
Depletion of Interconnected Surface Water
◼Establish stream gaging along sections of known SW/GW connection
⚫Location selection must account for surface water diversions and return flows.
◼Establish a shallow groundwater monitoring well network to characterize
groundwater levels adjacent to connected streams and hydrogeologic properties.
⚫Network should extend perpendicular and parallel to stream flow to provide adequate
characterization to constrain model development.
⚫Monitor to capture seasonal pumping conditions in vicinity-connected surface water bodies.
◼Identify and quantify both timing and volume of groundwater pumping within
approximately 3 miles of the stream or as appropriate for the flow regime.
◼Establish qualitative monitoring by use of GPS survey of the timing and position
along stream where ephemeral or intermittent streams cease to flow.
DRAFTSMC Development:
2. Set Minimum Thresholds
◼Considerations
⚫What are the historical rates of stream depletion for different water year types?
⚫What is the uncertainty in streamflow depletion estimates from analytical and
numerical tools?
⚫What is the proximity of pumping to streams?
⚫Where are groundwater dependent ecosystems in the basin?
⚫What are the agricultural and municipal surface water needs in the basin?
⚫What are the applicable State or federally mandated flow requirements?
DRAFT
Examples from other GSPs
Mid County Santa Cruz
◼Used groundwater elevation as a proxy.
◼Significant and unreasonable depletion of surface water due to groundwater extraction, in
interconnected streams supporting priority species, would be undesirable if there is more depletion
than experienced since the start of shallow groundwater level monitoring through 2015.
◼Minimum thresholds were set based on the GW elevations in shallow RMPs below which
significant and unreasonable depletions of surface water due to GW extractions would occur.
◼Since significant and unreasonable conditions have not occurred since 2001, minimum
thresholds are based on the highest historical seasonal-low elevation during below-average
rainfall years.
◼Measurable objectives at RMPs are groundwater elevations greater than the MTs by the range in
seasonal-low shallow elevations over the period of record through 2015.
◼The interim milestones for Water Years 2025, 2030, and 2035 are based on the minimum model
simulated groundwater elevations over Water Years 2021-2025, Water Years 2026-2030, and
2031-2035, respectively.
DRAFT
Examples from other GSPs
Cuyama
◼Used groundwater elevation as a proxy.
◼The Undesirable Result for depletions of interconnected surface water is a
result that causes significant and unreasonable reductions in the viability of
agriculture or riparian habitat within the Basin over the planning and
implementation horizon of this GSP.
◼Because current Basin conditions have not varied from January 1, 2015
conditions, the groundwater level thresholds will act to maintain depletions
of interconnected surface water at similar levels to those that existed in
January 1, 2015.
DRAFT
What are we doing?
◼Collecting and assessing existing data (ex. From CLSI) to understand
individual tributaries better and also calibrate model.
◼Developing GSFLOW to assist with this SMC.
◼Installing transects to form a reliable monitoring network and fill the gaps.
◼Using Satellite imagery as proxy monitoring/observation to generate flow/no-
flow datasets and record historical conditions.
◼Using recently published functional flow database to understand the
interconnection better.
DRAFT
What are we doing? Ex. McNab Creek
15-minute stream gage + monitoring well
head data since 2012
Magnitude and direction of gradient affects
loss/gain volumes
DRAFT
What are we doing? Ex. McNab Creek
McNab Creek 1
DRAFT
Thank you!
Questions?