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HomeMy WebLinkAbout9.10.20 Board PacketUKIAH VALLEY BASIN GROUNDWATER SUSTAINABILITY AGENCY 501 Low Gap Rd., Rm. 1010  Ukiah  California 95482  (707)463-4441  fax (707)463-7237 NOTICE OF MEETING NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN that the Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency (“Agency”) Board of Directors (“Board”) will hold its regular Board Meeting at: 1:30 P.M. - Thursday, September 10, 2020 Mendocino County Board of Supervisors Chambers, 501 Low Gap Road, Room 1070, CA 95482 Due to COVID-19 the UVBGSA meetings will be conducted virtually and not available for in person public participation (pursuant to State Executive Order N 29 20). The public may participate digitally in meetings by sending comments to uvbgsa@mendocinocounty.org, or register for the zoom meeting at https://mendocinocounty.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJwlc- qvrTgoHdJPY0EjK5Kzy8oTOd-9hck6, in lieu of personal attendance. After registering via zoom, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. All email comment must be received by 8:00 A.M. the morning of the meeting in order to be published online prior to the meeting. AGENDA 1. CALL TO ORDER AND ROLL CALL 2. PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE 3. CONSENT ITEMS a. Approval of Minutes from the June 11, 2020 Meeting 4. STAFF UPDATES 5. PUBLIC COMMENTS ON ITEMS NOT ON THE AGENDA The Board will receive public comments on items not appearing on the agenda and within the subject matter jurisdiction of the Agency. The Board will not enter into a detailed discussion or take any action on any items presented during public comments. Such items may only be referred to staff for administrative action or scheduled on a subsequent agenda for discussion. Persons wishing to speak on specific agenda items should do so at the time specified for those items. The presiding Chair shall limit public comments to three minutes. 6. ACTION ITEMS a. Discussion and Possible Action Regarding Updates to the Monitoring Network The Board will receive an update on the progress instrumenting existing wells, installing possible new stream gages, and Technical Support Services. UKIAH VALLEY BASIN GROUNDWATER SUSTAINABILITY AGENCY 501 Low Gap Rd., Rm. 1010  Ukiah  California 95482  (707)463-4441  fax (707)463-7237 b. Discussion Regarding the Development of Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP) Chapters and Upcoming Opportunities for Review The Board will receive an update on the progress on GSP Chapter development and upcoming opportunities for review by the Board, Technical Advisory Committee and the public. c. Presentation and Discussion Regarding the Development of Future Scenarios and the Scenario Development Survey The Board will receive an update and recommendations on future scenarios to consider in the GSP development. d. Discussion and Possible Action Regarding Integrated Model Updates and Preliminary Surface Water and Groundwater Interaction Results The Board will receive an update on status of the integrated GSFLOW model. 7. DIRECTOR REPORTS 8. ADJOURNMENT The Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency complies with ADA requirements and upon request, will attempt to reasonably accommodate individuals with disabilities by making meeting material available in appropriate alternative formats (pursuant to Government Code Section 54953.2). Anyone requiring reasonable accommodation to participate in the meeting should contact the Mendocino County Executive Office by calling (707) 463-4441 at least five days prior to the meeting. Please reference the Mendocino County website to obtain additional information for the Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency: http://www.mendocinocounty.org/uvbgsa. To register for the zoom meeting to participate virtually visit: https://mendocinocounty.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJwlc -qvrTgoHdJPY0EjK5Kzy8oTOd-9hck6. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting. Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency Agenda Summary Page 1 of 1 Item No.: 3.a Date: 9/10/20 To: Board of Directors Subject: Discussion and Possible Approval of Minutes from the June 11, 2020 Regular Meeting Consent Agenda Regular Agenda Noticed Public Hearing Summary: Approval of Minutes from June 11, 2020, Regular Meeting. Recommended Action: Approve the June 11, 2020, regular meeting minutes. Background: The Agency convened on June 11, 2020. Fiscal Summary: N/A Action: ___________________________________________________ Motion:_____________________ 2nd:__________________________ UKIAH VALLEY BASIN GROUNDWATER SUSTAINABILITY AGENCY 501 Low Gap Rd., Rm. 1010  Ukiah  California 95482  (707)463-4441  fax (707)463-7237 NOTICE OF MEETING NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN that the Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency (“Agency”) Board of Directors (“Board”) will hold its regular Board Meeting at: 1:30 P.M. - Thursday, June 11, 2020 Mendocino County Board of Supervisors Chambers, 501 Low Gap Road, Room 1070, CA 95482 Due to COVID-19 the UVBGSA meetings will be conducted virtually and not available for in person public participation (pursuant to State Executive Order N 29 20). The public may participate digitally in meetings by sending comments to uvbgsa@mendocinocounty.org, or register for the zoom meeting at https://mendocinocounty.zoom.us/meeting/register/tJMrceGprTIiE9OvS_IzOlMr1jjXlaxtZhXr , in lieu of personal attendance. All email comment must be received by 8:00 A.M. the morning of the meeting in order to be published online prior to the meeting. AGENDA 1. CALL TO ORDER AND ROLL CALL 1:32 pm Present: Chair Carre Brown, Director Douglas Crane, Director Zac Robinson, Director Ken Todd, Director Alfred White Absent: Director Brandi Brown 2. PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE The Pledge of Allegiance was led by: Director Zac Robinson 3. CONSENT ITEMS a. Approval of Minutes from the March 12, 2020 Meeting Presenter/s: Chair Brown Public Comment: None. Board Action: Upon motion by Director White, seconded by Director Robinson, and carried (6/11/2020); IT IS ORDERED that the minutes with corrections from the March 12, 2020, Ukiah Valley Groundwater Sustainability Agency are hereby approved. 4. STAFF UPDATES Presenter/s: Ms. Sarah Dukett, Deputy Chief Executive Officer, Mendocino County UKIAH VALLEY BASIN GROUNDWATER SUSTAINABILITY AGENCY 501 Low Gap Rd., Rm. 1010  Ukiah  California 95482  (707)463-4441  fax (707)463-7237 5. PUBLIC COMMENTS ON ITEMS NOT ON THE AGENDA Presenter/s: None 6. ACTION ITEMS a. Update and Discussion Regarding the Integrated Model and Groundwater Sustainability Plan Development Presenter/s: Ms. Laura Foglia, Senior Engineer, Larry Walker Associates; Mr. Amir Mani, Larry Walker Associates; and Ms. Sarah Dukett, Deputy Chief Executive Officer, Mendocino County Public Comment: Devon Jones, Mendocino County Farm Bureau The Board received a presentation regarding the work completed for the integrated model including the PRMS rainfall runoff watershed model, MODFLOW groundwater model and the GSFLOW agriculture model. The Board also received an updated on the Groundwater Sustainability Plan chapter development including the status of Chapter 2.1 and 2.2 and the additional information required to complete those sections. Board Action: None. b. Presentation, Discussion, and Possible Action Regarding the Development of Sustainability Goals for Water Quality Degradation and Subsidence Presenter/s: Ms. Laura Foglia, Senior Engineer, Larry Walker Associates; Mr. Amir Mani, Larry Walker Associates; and Ms. Sarah Dukett, Deputy Chief Executive Officer, Mendocino County Public Comment: Devon Jones, Mendocino County Farm Bureau The Board received a presentation regarding Sustainable Management Criteria. Larry Walker Associates reviewed the 6 sustainability indicators and management criteria components. A summary of the sustainability goal survey of the Technical Advisory Committee and Board of Directors was presented along with a working draft of a basin sustainability goal. Options and recommendations regarding sustainable management criteria for water quality and subsidence were reviewed and feedback solicited from the Board of Directors. Board Action: Direction to staff that the Board is in agreement with the general recommendations of the Technical Advisory Committee. The water quality section should highlight the different types of water use and the naturally occurring constituents and integrate that information into the threshold and trigger development. c. Discussion and Possible Adoption of the Proposed Fiscal Year 2020-2021 Budget UKIAH VALLEY BASIN GROUNDWATER SUSTAINABILITY AGENCY 501 Low Gap Rd., Rm. 1010  Ukiah  California 95482  (707)463-4441  fax (707)463-7237 Presenter/s: Ms. Sarah Dukett, Deputy Chief Executive Officer, Mendocino County Public Comment: None. The Board received a presentation regarding the proposed FY 2020-2021 UVBGSA budget. Board Action: Upon motion by Director Crane, seconded by Director White, and carried (6/11/2020); IT IS ORDERED that the Fiscal Year 2020-2021 budget is hereby approved. Absent: Director Brown Abstain: Director Robinson 7. DIRECTOR REPORTS Presenter/s: Chair Brown Public Comment: None. 8. ADJOURNMENT (3:09 pm) The Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency complies with ADA requirements and upon request, will attempt to reasonably accommodate individuals with disabilities by making meeting material available in appropriate alternative formats (pursuant to Government Code Section 54953.2). Anyone requiring reasonable accommodation to participate in the meeting should contact the Mendocino County Executive Office by calling (707) 463-4441 at least five days prior to the meeting. Please reference the Mendocino County website to obtain additional information for the Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency: http://www.mendocinocounty.org/uvbgsa Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency Agenda Summary Page 1 of 1 Item No.: 6.a Date: 9/10/20 To: Board of Directors Subject: Discussion and Possible Action Regarding Updates to the Monitoring Network Consent Agenda Regular Agenda Noticed Public Hearing Summary: The Board will receive an update regarding the development of an Ukiah Basin Monitoring network. Recommended Action: Provide direction to staff regarding the monitoring network. Background: On April 29, 2019, the Department of Water Resources tentatively approved the Agency’s Technical Support Services application to drill monitoring wells in the Ukiah Valley to support the Groundwater Sustainability Plan development and compliance. In March 2020, DWR awarded additional Proposition 68 funding for instrumenting wells and gages. Fiscal Summary: N/A Action: ___________________________________________________ Motion:_____________________ 2nd:__________________________ Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency Agenda Summary Page 1 of 2 Item No.: 6.b Date: 9/10/20 To: Board of Directors Subject: Discussion Regarding the Development of Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP) Chapters and Upcoming Opportunities for Review Consent Agenda Regular Agenda Noticed Public Hearing Summary: The Board will receive an update and presentation from Larry Walker and Associates on the progress on GSP Chapter development and upcoming opportunities for review by the Board, Technical Advisory Committee and the public. Recommended Action: Provide direction to staff regarding the UVGSP commenting process. Background: On June 14, 2018, the Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency (UVBGSA) recommended approval of a contract with Larry Walker and Associates for the development of the Ukiah Valley Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP). On July 10, 2018, the Mendocino County Water Agency Board of Directors approved the contract with Larry Walker and Associates. On September 13, 2018, Larry Walker and Associates present an overview of the project and schedule to solicit feedback from the Board. Larry Walker and Associates will be presenting to the Board on a regular basis to review components of the GSP for feedback and approval. Fiscal Summary: N/A Action: ___________________________________________________ Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency Agenda Summary Page 2 of 2 Motion:_____________________ 2nd:__________________________ Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency Agenda Summary Page 1 of 2 Item No.: 6.c Date: 9/10/20 To: Board of Directors Subject: Presentation and Discussion Regarding the Development of Future Scenarios and the Scenario Development Survey Consent Agenda Regular Agenda Noticed Public Hearing Summary: The Board will receive an update and presentation from Larry Walker and Associates regarding potential scenarios to simulate in the model for GSP development. Recommended Action: Provide direction to staff regarding potential scenarios Background: The integrated model is in the final stages of development and will be utilized during the summer to run appropriate future scenarios, as wells as baseline historical and future conditions. Larry Walker and Associates is working collaboratively with the Technical Advisory Committee to generate a list of model scenarios for Board feedback and consideration that would inform the decision-making process surrounding the Ukiah Valley Basin GSP. These scenarios should preferably help us in one or more of the following areas: - Improve our understanding of the Ukiah Valley Basin; - Set sustainable management criteria for one or more of the undesirable results; - Develop management actions and future projects; - Evaluate possible future changes; and, - Illustrate the sustainable management of the basin by 2042. Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency Agenda Summary Page 2 of 2 Fiscal Summary: N/A Action: ___________________________________________________ Motion:_____________________ 2nd:__________________________ Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency Agenda Summary Page 1 of 1 Item No.: 6.d Date: 9/10/20 To: Board of Directors Subject: Discussion and Possible Action Regarding Integrated Model Updates and Preliminary Surface Water and Groundwater Interaction Results Consent Agenda Regular Agenda Noticed Public Hearing Summary: The Board will receive a presentation providing an update on the integrated model including the coupled GSFLOW model and preliminary surface water and groundwater interaction results. Recommended Action: Receive presentation regarding the integrated model and preliminary surface water and groundwater interaction results. Background: On June 14, 2018, the Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency (UVBGSA) recommended approval of a contract with Larry Walker and Associates for the development of the Ukiah Valley Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP). On July 10, 2018, the Mendocino County Water Agency Board of Directors approved the contract with Larry Walker and Associates. Larry Walker and Associates presents to the Board on a regular basis to review components of the GSP for feedback and approval. LWA will provide the status of the coupled GSFLOW model, what is currently being undertaken and next steps. Fiscal Summary: N/A Action: ___________________________________________________ Motion:_____________________ 2nd:__________________________ Ukiah Valley Groundwater Sustainability Plan Development Update September 10, 2020 Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency Board Meeting DRAFT DRAFT ◼Monitoring Network and Technical Support Service Update ⚫Instrumentation of Existing Wells ⚫New Stream Gage Installation ◼GSP Chapters Development and Review ◼Integrated Model Updates and Preliminary Water Budget ◼Future Scenarios ⚫Summary of Scenario Development Survey ⚫Examples of Simulated Future Scenarios ⚫Development of Further Scenarios ◼Satellite Imagery for SW/GW Interaction and GDEs: Use and Proof of Concept Outline DRAFT ◼Concept: Couple monitoring wells on both sides of streams with stream gage to assess the SW/GW interaction. ◼Summary Updates: ⚫1 well already instrumented with continuous groundwater level and temperature ⚫2 more wells ready to be installed ⚫Dashboard with all available data under development ⚫Installation of new streamflow gages Monitoring Network and TSS Update Stream Gage DRAFT Monitoring Network and TSS Update Communicating with well-owner to instrument Added well that will be instrumented Communicating with well-owner to incorporate one of the wells USGS-11462080 No need to drill Instrumenting two separate wells in Aq 1 and 2. Instrumented and in use. Verbally in agreement for drilling new wells. Southern well is a nested well. DRAFT Example Dashboard DRAFT ◼Two primary locations are in Redwood Valley on Russian River and Forsythe Creek: ⚫Provide a good picture when incorporated into the Redwood Valley Monitoring Transect ⚫Provide a measure of inflow to the basin from Russian River ⚫Provide understanding of Forsythe creek as a model tributary in the northern Ukiah Valley Basin (Redwood Valley) New Streamflow Gage Installation West Fork Russian River Gage to replace the NFMS gage in Redwood Valley Forsythe Creek Gage: The first gage to be installed on tributaries for the plan DRAFT Questions? ◼Are there any other critical areas that we should look into to add GW and/or SW monitoring? ◼We need to start planning for the long-term GSP monitoring network: are the wells that we are instrumenting potential candidates for the GSP network? DRAFT GSP Chapters Development and Review A GSP has five chapters: 1.Introduction 2.Plan Area and Basin Setting 3.Sustainable Management Criteria 4.Projects and Management Actions 5.Plan Implementation Mostly administrative information Will work with the County to produce Will be completed and sent for review by the end of September. This chapter will undergo minor changes up to the end of the GSP writing As we progress investigating each SMC we will roll out respective subchapters of these two chapters for review starting with Water Quality and Subsidence in October. Will be rolled out with the completed GSP DRAFT ◼Chapter 2 (2.1 and 2.2) provided to the TAC in September 2020 ◼As we progress investigating each SMC we will roll out respective subchapters of these two chapters for review ⚫Water Quality and Subsidence (including SMC and monitoring network): October 2020 ⚫Surface Water Depletion (including SMC and monitoring network): End of November 2020 ⚫Lowering groundwater levels and decrease in storage: January 2020 Next steps DRAFT More in details for Chapter 2 ◼Key sections not completed for Subchapter 2.1 ⚫Existing monitoring and management programs ⚫Incorporate County of Mendocino Zoning Plan ⚫Include environmental health department policies for well construction/abandonment/destruction and wellhead protection ⚫Input for migration of contaminated groundwater and replenishment of groundwater in recent years if any. Accordingly, descriptions of cleanup, conservation, water recycling, and extraction projects need to be incorporated. ⚫Improve understanding of Groundwater Dependent Ecosystems DRAFT More in details for Chapter 2 ◼Key sections not completed for Subchapter 2.2 ⚫Identification of interconnected surface water systems and GDEs are pending further discussion and technical work. DRAFT Reminder about how to use the Reviewer Form Reviewer name: Submission date: GSP sections reviewed: Line number Suggested revision (please delete example text below once you submit) 69 Example: In the acknowledgements section, please add XXX as a partner 131 Example: Can you provide source of information, footnote or otherwise? 220 Example of how to make edits to original document text: In 2014, the State of California enacted the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, which includes requirements that must be addressed in the Scott Valley Basin, as this area is considered a medium priority groundwater basin. DRAFT Questions? DRAFT Future Scenarios: Summary of Scenario Development Survey ◼Future Baseline (50-year period) ⚫Most representative synthesis? ◼Changes to PVP ⚫Extent of changes and when they start? ⚫Other changes that may stem from it and not captured naturally by the model? ◼Resiliency to refilling ⚫Any scenario suggestion? ◼Changes in land use and Ag ⚫Increase in cannabis: how to simulate? At what rate of expansion, where, and when? ⚫Urban expansion: same questions and cannabis. Should we couple with population growth as one scenario? ◼Population and water demand changes ⚫Rate, where, and when? Should we have different zones with different factors? ◼Recharge projects ⚫Where and when? ⚫Specifics: acreage, approach, source water, seasonal? ◼Changes in Lake Mendocino Release ⚫Does Sonoma Water have prediction scenarios we can use? ⚫Other things we need to consider related to this release, i.e. instream flow requirements? ◼Recycled Water ⚫Can we have the specific timing and delivery rates of projects and use areas for next phases? Other things to consider? ◼Changes in river channel morphology ⚫Anything to add to CLSI proposal? ◼Other suggestions? Consider: ➢Time and budget constraints ➢Feasibility of model simulation ➢Benefit to this plan and future management ➢Applicability and probability We want to: ➢Improve understanding of basin ➢Set SMCs/ develop actions ➢Evaluate future changes ➢Illustrate sustainability DRAFT Future Scenarios: Summary of potential Scenarios ◼Future baseline ⚫Most recent 10-year period has been proposed to be repeated instead of the 50 years that was suggested during the last meeting. ◼Climate change ⚫There is interest in simulating other scenarios using climate change data. ⚫Think again about the limitations we discussed for DWR methods. ◼Changes to PVP ⚫Extent of changes: from 50% reduction to complete loss of inflows. ⚫To happen in 5 years (2025) DRAFT ◼Changes in land use ⚫Simulation of more cannabis, ex: non-vineyard lands are all cannabis + 20% of vineyards ◼Urban expansion ⚫Expansion may be more focused on the City ⚫Adjust population growth to more than what is predicted (Does increase in population relatively converge with urban expansion?) ⚫Adjust City’s water use accordingly ◼Changes in Lake Mendocino Releases ⚫Possible release scenarios from Sonoma Water ⚫Should we couple this with instream flow requirements? ◼Increase in RW consumption ⚫Scenario to be developed in coordination with the City Future Scenarios: Summary of potential Scenarios DRAFT ◼We may be able to choose from these suggestions too: ⚫Changes is river morphology: Vary the incision/restoration in river channels. 50 years, watershed-wide, preferably with climate change ⚫Artificial Recharge/Stormwater capture: Do we need them if the basin is recharging almost annually? ⚫Changes is storage methods or converting high-use wells to additional ponds ⚫Resiliency of basin to refilling: Simulation of long-term 5 to 20-year drought is proposed. Future Scenarios: Summary of potential Scenarios DRAFT Questions? ◼Other scenarios that we should consider? DRAFT 19 ◼What is new ⚫We now have a Coupled GSFLOW Integrated Model Updates Calibrate Confined Version Use Calibrated Values Run Unconfined Version Couple with GSFLOW Final Calibration Calibrate Confined Version Use Calibrated Values Run Unconfined Version Couple with GSFLOW ◼What is being undertaken ⚫Demands and diversions are being included in the GSFLOW based on IDC results ⚫Additional observations points for GW levels and streamflow are included for the next round of calibration ◼Next steps: ⚫Sensitivity analysis and calibration of GSFLOW ⚫Assessment of need to add to Ag Package DRAFT ◼No SW diversion for Ag pumping is simulated Historical (1991-2018) Water Budget DRAFT ◼No agricultural SW diversion is simulated in this run of GSFLOW Historical (1991-2018) Water Budget: Dry, Wet, and Normal years DRAFT ◼No agricultural SW diversion is simulated in this run of the GSFLOW Current (2014-2018) Water Budget DRAFT Future Baseline and Climate Change Scenarios Section 354.18(c)(3): …The projected water budget shall utilize the following methodologies and assumptions to estimate future baseline conditions concerning hydrology, water demand and surface water supply availability or reliability over the planning and implementation horizon: (A) Projected hydrology shall utilize 50 years of historical precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow information as the baseline condition for estimating future hydrology. The projected hydrology information shall also be applied as the baseline condition used to evaluate future scenarios of hydrologic uncertainty associated with projections of climate change and sea level rise. Section 354.18(d)(3): (d) The Agency shall utilize the following information provided, as available, by the Department pursuant to Section 353.2, or other data of comparable quality, to develop the water budget: … (3) Projected water budget information for population, population growth, climate change, and sea level rise. Section 354.18(e): (e) Each Plan shall rely on the best available information and best available science to quantify the water budget for the basin in order to provide an understanding of historical and projected hydrology, water demand, water supply, land use, population, climate change, sea level rise, groundwater and surface water interaction, and subsurface groundwater flow… DRAFT What is available from DWR Climate Change Data •2 central tendency scenarios for 2030 and 2070 •2 extreme single GCM-RCP scenario representing drier with extreme warming and wetter with moderate warming •Data includes change factors for gridded precipitation, ET, CalWater HUC-8 unimpaired streamflow, and CalSim II impaired flow data and VIC routed streamflow Analysis Tools •Second Order Correction Spreadsheet Tool: more accurate streamflow patterns from monthly change factors •Desktop IWFM/MODFLOW Tools: Map VIC data to model grids Guidance Documents •Resource Guide •Guidance for Climate Change Data Use During Sustainability Plan Development •Climate Change Fact Sheet DRAFT DWR Guidance on Climate Change Analysis 25 What is available? •DWR provided data and tools to assist GSAs Is it required? •GSAs are not required to use DWR-provided climate change data or methods, but GSAs will need to adhere to the requirements in the GSP Regulations. And for future updates to the plan? •As climate science further develops, it will be important to use the data that reflect the current understanding and best available science at the time of future GSP updates. DRAFT Precipitation and Reference ET Data Specifics developed by DWR ◼Change Factors that should be multiplied by baseline climate data: 2030/2070 conditions divided by 1995 detrended conditions. ◼Data is generated from 1915 to 2011 ◼Spatial grid is 1/6th degree (6km); DWR suggests area- weighted averaging DRAFT Roadmap for Climate Change Analysis Using a Model and DWR Data: Historical baseline includes >50-year simulation period between 1915-2011 that was used for future baseline? Multiply baseline P & ET by change factors for 2030 and 2070 and generate input climate data Is baseline <50-year? Does baseline simulate beyond 2011? DWR provides no guidance. Add historical data that captures water year types trend and frequency in the region. Use the most similar years within 1915-2011 in terms of water year type and average P and T for change factors Run model using these hydroclimatic data and the most recent data for land use, diversions, etc. Aggregate the results, summarize them appropriately for presentation Estimate uncertainty in projection and present it with the results Yes YesYes No No Aggregate P/T/ET to Monthly Values Reduce P/T/ET to Daily Values DRAFT Example of Future Baseline (1969-2018) Water Budget DRAFT ◼No agricultural SW diversion is simulated in this run of the GSFLOW Future Baseline (1969-2018) Water Budget DRAFT Satellite Imagery: Use and Proof of Concept to better understand SW/GW and GDEs Google Earth Pro April 24, 2010 Esri’s Way Back Living Atlas June 15, 2010 Morrison Creek Tributary Flowing Dry DRAFTSatellite Imagery: Use and Proof of Concept ◼40 observation sites are defined ⚫3 on Russian River West Fork ⚫1 on Russian River East Fork ⚫36 on Tributaries, mostly 2 per tributary DRAFT Satellite Imagery: Sources ◼High resolution images ◼Infrequent ⚫Once or twice per year ⚫Random months ⚫Skips some years ◼We cannot pinpoint on sub-monthly scale when rivers flowing status changes ◼Low resolution images ⚫We cannot see most of the observation sites clearly to use it ◼Frequent flyover ⚫Twice or more per month ⚫Available for recent years only ◼We can pinpoint on sub-monthly scale when rivers flowing status changes DRAFT Satellite Imagery: Sources DRAFT Thank you! Questions?