HomeMy WebLinkAbout11.12.20 Board PacketUKIAH VALLEY BASIN GROUNDWATER SUSTAINABILITY AGENCY
501 Low Gap Rd., Rm. 1010 Ukiah California 95482 (707)463-4441 fax (707)463-7237
NOTICE OF MEETING
NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN that the Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability
Agency (“Agency”) Board of Directors (“Board”) will hold its regular Board Meeting at:
1:30 P.M. - Thursday, November 12th, 2020
Mendocino County Board of Supervisors Chambers,
501 Low Gap Road, Room 1070, CA 95482
Due to COVID-19 the UVBGSA meetings will be conducted virtually and not available for in person public
participation (pursuant to State Executive Order N 29 20).
The public may participate digitally in meetings by sending comment s to uvbgsa@mendocinocounty.org
or by clicking the link below to join the Zoom meeting, in lieu of personal attendance.
Zoom Meeting: https://mendocinocounty.zoom.us/j/81710645976
Phone: +1 669 900 9128
Meeting ID: 817 1064 5976
All email comment must be received by 8:00 A.M. the morning of the meeting in order to be published
online prior to the meeting.
AGENDA
1. CALL TO ORDER AND ROLL CALL
2. PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE
3. CONSENT ITEMS
a. Approval of Minutes from the September 10th, 2020 Meeting
4. STAFF UPDATES
a. Appointment Period of UVBGSA Members for 2021/22
b. Data Sharing Reminder
5. PUBLIC COMMENTS ON ITEMS NOT ON THE AGENDA
The Board will receive public comments on items not appearing on the agenda and
within the subject matter jurisdiction of the Agency. The Board will not enter into
a detailed discussion or take any action on any items presented during public
comments. Such items may only be referred to staff for administrative action or
scheduled on a subsequent agenda for discussion. Persons wishing to speak on
specific agenda items should do so at the time specified for those items. The
presiding Chair shall limit public comments to three minutes.
6. ACTION ITEMS
a. Discussion and Possible Action Including Adoption of the 2021
Board of Directors Master Meeting Calendar
UKIAH VALLEY BASIN GROUNDWATER SUSTAINABILITY AGENCY
501 Low Gap Rd., Rm. 1010 Ukiah California 95482 (707)463-4441 fax (707)463-7237
The Board will receive an update and recommendations on the 2021
calendar.
b. Update on Outreach and Working Group Meetings
The Board will receive an update regarding the public, tribal, and working
group meetings that were held in the last three months.
c. Discussion and Possible Action Regarding Updates to the
Monitoring Network
The Board will receive an update on the progress on instrumentation of
existing wells, installation timeline for new stream gages, and Technical
Support Services as well as requirements of the GSP Monitoring Networks.
d. Discussion Regarding the Development of Groundwater
Sustainability Plan (GSP) Chapters and Upcoming Opportunities
for Review
The Board will receive an update on the progress on GSP Chapter 2 edits,
development of additional chapters, and upcoming opportunities for review
by the Board, Technical Advisory Committee and the public.
e. Presentation and Discussion Regarding the Future Scenarios
and Collaboration with Sonoma Water
The Board will receive an update and recommendations from Larry Walker
and Associates on the future scenarios to consider in the GSP development.
7. DIRECTOR REPORTS
8. ADJOURNMENT
The Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency complies with ADA requirements and upon
request, will attempt to reasonably accommodate individuals with disabilities by making meeting material
available in appropriate alternative formats (pursuant to Government Code Section 54953.2). Anyone
requiring reasonable accommodation to participate in the meeting should contact the Mendocino County
Executive Office by calling (707) 463-4441 at least five days prior to the meeting.
Please reference the Mendocino County website to obtain additional information for the Ukiah Valley Basin
Groundwater Sustainability Agency: http://www.mendocinocounty.org/uvbgsa.
To participate virtually please join us on Zoom at
Zoom Meeting: https://mendocinocounty.zoom.us/j/81710645976
Phone: +1 669 900 9128
Meeting ID: 817 1064 5976
Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency
Agenda Summary
Page 1 of 1
Item No.: 3.a
Date: 11/12/20
To: Board of Directors
Subject: Discussion and Possible Approval of Minutes from the September 10th, 2020
Regular Meeting
Consent Agenda Regular Agenda Noticed Public Hearing
Summary:
Approval of Minutes from September 10th, 2020 Regular Meeting.
Recommended Action:
Approve the September 10th, 2020, regular meeting minutes.
Background:
The Agency convened on September 10th, 2020.
Fiscal Summary:
N/A
Action: ___________________________________________________
Motion:_____________________ 2nd:__________________________
UKIAH VALLEY BASIN GROUNDWATER SUSTAINABILITY AGENCY
501 Low Gap Rd., Rm. 1010 Ukiah California 95482 (707)463-4441 fax (707)463-7237
NOTICE OF MEETING
NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN that the Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability
Agency (“Agency”) Board of Directors (“Board”) will hold its regular Board Meeting at:
1:30 P.M. - Thursday, September 10, 2020
Mendocino County Board of Supervisors Chambers,
501 Low Gap Road, Room 1070, CA 95482
MINUTES
1. CALL TO ORDER AND ROLL CALL
Present: Director Carre Brown, Director Douglas Crane, Director Alfred White, Director Brandi
Brown, Director Zachary Robinson
Absent: Director Richard Mack
2. PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE
3. CONSENT ITEMS
a. Approval of Minutes from the June 11, 2020 Meeting
Presenter/s: Chair Carre Brown
Public Comment: None
Board Action: Upon motion by Director White, seconded by Director Robinson, and carried
(9/10/2020); IT IS ORDERED that the minutes with corrections from the June 11, 2020,
Ukiah Valley Groundwater Sustainability Agency are hereby approved.
Abstain: Director Brandi Brown
4. STAFF UPDATES
Presenter/s: Ms. Sarah Dukett, Deputy Chief Executive Officer, Mendocino County
Public Comment: Laurel Marcus, California Land Stewardship Institute
Board Action: Board Direction to staff to draft a California Land Stewardship Institute (CLSI) grant
application support letter for a Ukiah Valley Basin groundwater coordinator. Upon motion by Director
White, seconded by Director Robinson, and carried with Director Brandi Brown abstaining (9/10/20);
IT IS ORDERED that a support Letter for CLSI Grant application is hereby approved.
UKIAH VALLEY BASIN GROUNDWATER SUSTAINABILITY AGENCY
501 Low Gap Rd., Rm. 1010 Ukiah California 95482 (707)463-4441 fax (707)463-7237
5. PUBLIC COMMENTS ON ITEMS NOT ON THE AGENDA
Presenter/s: Chair Carre Brown
Public Comment: None.
6. ACTION ITEMS
a. Discussion and Possible Action Regarding Updates to the
Monitoring Network
Presenter/s: Ms. Laura Foglia, Senior Engineer, Larry Walker Associates; Mr. Amir Mani,
Larry Walker Associates; and Ms. Sarah Dukett, Deputy Chief Executive Officer,
Mendocino County
Public Comment: Devon Jones, Mendocino County Farm Bureau
The Board received a presentation regarding the monitoring network and technical support
services update including instrumentation of existing wells, new stream gage installation
and new wells.
Board Action: None.
b. Discussion Regarding the Development of Groundwater
Sustainability Plan (GSP) Chapters and Upcoming Opportunities
for Review
Presenter/s: Ms. Laura Foglia, Senior Engineer, Larry Walker Associates; Mr. Amir Mani,
Larry Walker Associates; and Ms. Sarah Dukett, Deputy Chief Executive Officer,
Mendocino County
Public Comment: None.
The Board received a presentation regarding the writing and public comment process for
GSP chapters. Chapter 2 was provided to the TAC in September 2020 for comments. As the
technical team progresses in investigating each sustainable management criteria the
respective subchapters will be rolled out for review by the TAC, Board and public.
Board Action: None.
c. Presentation and Discussion Regarding the Development of
Future Scenarios and the Scenario Development Survey
Presenter/s: Ms. Laura Foglia, Senior Engineer, Larry Walker Associates; Mr. Amir Mani,
Larry Walker Associates; and Ms. Sarah Dukett, Deputy Chief Executive Officer,
Mendocino County
UKIAH VALLEY BASIN GROUNDWATER SUSTAINABILITY AGENCY
501 Low Gap Rd., Rm. 1010 Ukiah California 95482 (707)463-4441 fax (707)463-7237
Public Comment: Devon Jones, Mendocino County Farm Bureau and Elizabeth Salomone,
Russian River Flood Control and Water Conservation District
The Board received a presentation regarding potential future scenarios to run and key
considerations for determining which areas to focus on. Larry Walk and Associates updated
the board on the Scenario Development Survey results highlighting options including:
future baseline scenarios, changes to t he Potter Valley Project, resiliency, land use changes,
population growth and recharge projects.
Board Action: Direction to staff regarding scenario considerations for population growth,
Potter Valley Project changes and increased storage at Lake Mendocino.
d. Discussion and Possible Action Regarding Integrated Model
Updates and Preliminary Surface Water and Groundwater
Interaction Results
Presenter/s: Ms. Laura Foglia, Senior Engineer, Larry Walker Associates; Mr. Amir Mani,
Larry Walker Associates; and Ms. Sarah Dukett, Deputy Chief Executive Officer,
Mendocino County
Public Comment: Devon Jones, Mendocino County Farm Bureau
The Board received a presentation updating the Board on the Integrated Model progress.
The Coupled GSFLOW is in final calibration. Demands and diversions are being included
in the GSFLOW based on IDC results. Additional observation points for groundwater levels
and streamflow are included for the next round of calibration. The next steps include
sensitivity analysis, calibration of GSFLOW and assessment of adding the Ag package. The
Board also received information on various options that can be utilized with satellite
imagery to better understand surface water/groundwater interactions and groundwater
dependent ecosystems.
Board Action: Direction to staff to run the precipitation gama distribution for 100 years,
50 years and 25 years for comparison to help inform the future baseline decision.
7. DIRECTOR REPORTS
Presenter/s: Chair Brown
Public Comment: None.
8. ADJOURNMENT
(3:25 pm)
UKIAH VALLEY BASIN GROUNDWATER SUSTAINABILITY AGENCY
501 Low Gap Rd., Rm. 1010 Ukiah California 95482 (707)463-4441 fax (707)463-7237
________________________________
CARRE BROWN, Chair
Attest: Secretary
________________________________
Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency
Agenda Summary
Page 1 of 2
Item No.: 6.a
Date: 11/12/20
To: Board of Directors
Subject: Discussion and Possible Action Including Adoption of the 2021 Board of Directors
Master Meeting Calendar
Consent Agenda Regular Agenda Noticed Public Hearing
Summary:
The Joint Power Agreement requires that the Board of Directors meet at least quarterly (Section
8.2). Therefore, the Board of Directors should consider the proposed 2021 Board of Directors
Master Meeting Calendar.
Recommended Action:
Adopt the 2021 Board Of Directors Master Meeting Calendar
Background:
On May 10, 2017, the general consensus of the Board was the Board shall meet on the Second
Thursday of the month at 1:30 P.M. in the Mendocino County Board of Supervisors Chambers;
initially meeting monthly, then transitioning to quarterly meetings. The meetings are currently
scheduled monthly to deal with any last minute issues in the last six months of the GSP Planning
Phase.
Public Meetings will also be tentatively scheduled throughout the next year on February 23,
April 20, June 22, and September 21. These meetings will allow for public updates and
discussion of comments on the plan.
Fiscal Summary: N/A
Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency
Agenda Summary
Page 2 of 2
Action: ___________________________________________________
Motion:_____________________ 2nd:__________________________
Proposed Schedule UVBGSA Board
JANUARY FEBRUARY Feburary 11
S M T W T F S S M T W T F S Regular Meeting
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 March 11
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Regular Meeting
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
24 25 26 27 28 29 30 28 April 8
31 Regular Meeting
MARCH APRIL May 13
S M T W T F S S M T W T F S Regular Meeting
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 June 10
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Regular Meeting
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
28 29 30 31 25 26 27 28 29 30 July 8
Regular Meeting
MAY JUNE October 14
S M T W T F S S M T W T F S Regular Meeting
1 1 2 3 4 5
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
23 24 25 26 27 28 29 27 28 29 30
30 31
JULY AUGUST
S M T W T F S S M T W T F S
1 2 3 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
11 12 13 14 15 16 17 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Meeting Location
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
25 26 27 28 29 30 31 29 30 31
Meeting Time
1:30 p.m.
SEPTEMBER OCTOBER
S M T W T F S S M T W T F S Ukiah Valley Basin GSA
1 2 3 4 1 2 501 Low Gap Road, Room 1010
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Ukiah, CA 95482
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 707.463.4441
19 20 21 22 23 24 25 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 uvbgsa@mendocinocounty.org
26 27 28 29 30 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 www.mendocinocounty.org/uvbgsa
31
NOVEMBER DECEMBER Key
S M T W T F S S M T W T F S UVBGSA Board Meetings
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
28 29 30 26 27 28 29 30 31
2021
501 Low Gap Rd. Room 1070,
Ukiah, CA 95482
Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency
Agenda Summary
Page 1 of 1
Item No.: 6.b
Date: 11/12/20
To: Board of Directors
Subject: Update on Outreach and Working Group Meetings
Consent Agenda Regular Agenda Noticed Public Hearing
Summary:
The Board will receive an update regarding the public, tribal and working group meetings that
were held in the last three months.
Recommended Action:
Receive presentation regarding the outreach undertaken by MCWA staff and give
recommendations on other stakeholders to conduct outreach.
Background:
On April 18th, 2017 with the passage of the Joint Powers Agreement, the UVBGSA was authorized
to exercise all powers afforded to a GSA under SGMA legislation. This includes conducting public
outreach with stakeholders within the Basin as well as focused one on one stakeholder interviews
to better understand the needs of the Basin. To gain further understanding of bas in dynamics a
series of working group meetings were also convened to discuss the technical aspects of
developing a model for the UVB.
Fiscal Summary: N/A
Action: ___________________________________________________
Motion:_____________________ 2nd:__________________________
Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency
Agenda Summary
Page 1 of 1
Item No.: 6.c
Date: 11/12/20
To: Board of Directors
Subject: Discussion and Possible Action Regarding Updates to the Monitoring Network
Consent Agenda Regular Agenda Noticed Public Hearing
Summary:
The Board will receive an update on the progress on instrumentation of existing wells,
installation timeline for new stream gages, and Technical Support Services.
.
Recommended Action:
Provide direction to staff regarding the monitoring network.
Background:
On April 29, 2019, the Department of Water Resources tentatively approved the Agency’s
Technical Support Services application to drill monitoring wells in the Ukiah Valley to support
the Groundwater Sustainability Plan development and compliance. In March 2020, DWR
awarded additional Proposition 68 funding for instrumenting wells and gages.
Fiscal Summary: N/A
Action: ___________________________________________________
Motion:_____________________ 2nd:__________________________
Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency
Agenda Summary
Page 1 of 2
Item No.: 6.d
Date: 11/12/20
To: Board of Directors
Subject: Discussion Regarding the Development of Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP)
Chapters and Upcoming Opportunities for Review
Consent Agenda Regular Agenda Noticed Public Hearing
Summary:
The Board will receive an update on the progress on GSP Chapter 2 edits, development of
additional chapters, and upcoming opportunities for review by the Board, Technical
Advisory Committee and the public.
Recommended Action:
Provide direction to staff regarding the UVGSP commenting process.
Background:
On June 14, 2018, the Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency (UVBGSA)
recommended approval of a contract with Larry Walker and Associates for the development of
the Ukiah Valley Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP). On July 10, 2018, the Mendocino
County Water Agency Board of Directors approved the contract with Larry Walker and Associates.
On September 13, 2018, Larry Walker and Associates present an overview of the project and
schedule to solicit feedback from the Board. Larry Walker and Associates will be presenting to
the Board on a regular basis to review components of the GSP for feedback and approval.
Fiscal Summary: N/A
Action: ___________________________________________________
Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency
Agenda Summary
Page 2 of 2
Motion:_____________________ 2nd:__________________________
Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency
Agenda Summary
Page 1 of 2
Item No.: 6.e
Date: 11/12/20
To: Board of Directors
Subject: Presentation and Discussion Regarding the Future Scenarios and Collaboration with
Sonoma Water
Consent Agenda Regular Agenda Noticed Public Hearing
Summary:
The Board will receive an update and presentation from Larry Walker and Associates on future
scenarios to consider in the model for GSP development.
Recommended Action:
Provide direction to staff regarding potential scenarios
Background:
The integrated model is in the final stages of development and will be utilized during the summer
to run appropriate future scenarios, as wells as baseline historical and future conditions. Larry
Walker and Associates is working collaboratively with the Technical Advisory Committee to
generate a list of model scenarios for Board feedback and consideration that would inform the
decision-making process surrounding the Ukiah Valley Basin GSP. These scenarios should
preferably help us in one or more of the following areas:
- Improve our understanding of the Ukiah Valley Basin;
- Set sustainable management criteria for one or more of the undesirable results;
- Develop management actions and future projects;
- Evaluate possible future changes; and,
- Illustrate the sustainable management of the basin by 2042.
Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency
Agenda Summary
Page 2 of 2
Fiscal Summary: N/A
Action: ___________________________________________________
Motion:_____________________ 2nd:__________________________
DRAFT
Ukiah Valley Groundwater
Sustainability Plan Development
Update
November 12, 2020
Ukiah Valley Basin Groundwater Sustainability Agency
DRAFT
◼Introduction to GSP Monitoring Network and Instrumentation Updates
◼Outreach Meetings Update
◼GSP Writing and Review:
⚫Review and commenting of draft Chapter 2 and schedule for next deliverables
⚫Revised proposed schedule for chapter delivery and review
◼Future Scenarios
⚫Summary of Scenario Development Survey
⚫Examples of Simulated Future Scenarios
⚫Development of Further Scenarios
Outline
DRAFT
◼Introduction to GSP Monitoring Network and Instrumentation Updates
◼Outreach Meetings Update
◼GSP Writing and Review:
⚫Review and commenting of draft Chapter 2 and schedule for next deliverables
⚫Revised proposed schedule for chapter delivery and review
◼Future Scenarios
⚫Summary of Scenario Development Survey
⚫Examples of Simulated Future Scenarios
⚫Development of Further Scenarios
Outline
DRAFT
Monitoring Networks
◼Why is it important?
⚫Measures progress toward the achievement of any management goal
⚫Sustainability criteria are defined based on the components of the monitoring
network
◼May be different for each sustainability indicator
◼Must have sufficient temporal frequency and spatial distribution to:
⚫demonstrate short-term, seasonal, and long-term trends in basin conditions
⚫demonstrate progress toward achieving measurable objectives
⚫monitor impacts to the beneficial uses or users of groundwater
⚫monitor changes in groundwater conditions relative to MOs and MTs
⚫quantify annual changes in water budget components
DRAFT
Monitoring Networks: Density and Extent
De
t
e
r
m
i
n
i
n
g
F
a
c
t
o
r
s
Aquifer Characteristics
GW pumpage and use
Impacts to BUs
Fluctuation and
variability
Proximity to projects
or adjacent basins
Multi-SI monitoring
Access and safety
“There is no definitive rule for the density of
groundwater monitoring points needed in a basin.”
UVGB: 59 sq miles
DRAFT
Ongoing installation: What has been done?
◼GW Level Monitoring:
⚫Instrumented 4 existing CASGEM wells with continuous measurement; Will instrument 4+ more.
⚫3-4 wells to be drilled by the DWR, at least 2 are nested wells.
⚫Continuous measurement of GW levels available on LWA portal for GSP planning use and owners’
use.
◼Streamflow monitoring:
⚫4 existing USGS streamflow gages exist within the Basin (including Hopland gage outside of the
basin)
⚫2 streamflow gages to be installed on Russian River in Redwood Valley and on Forsythe Creek.
Possible third tributary gage to be installed later.
DRAFTExisting and Planned Monitoring Network for
Chronic Lowering of Groundwater Levels
◼Rely on CASGEM and DWR TSS wells.
◼Existing DWR wells+CASGEM wells+TSS wells. Network
expansion will be considered later
⚫Aquifer I: 3 (DWR) + 6|8 (Instrumented) + 4 (TSS)
⚫Aquifer II: 1* (DWR) + 1 (Nested Instrumented) + 2|3 (TSS)
⚫Aquifer III: 1* (DWR) + 1 (Nested Instrumented) + 2|3 (TSS)
◼We can use RMPs for setting SMCs:
⚫Aquifer I: DWR wells
⚫Aquifer II: No long-term data, we should decide if we are setting SMCs
⚫Aquifer III: No long-term data, we should decide if we are setting SMCs
DRAFT
Existing Monitoring Network:
Groundwater Quality Degradation
◼Public supply wells that submit data to
DDW regularly
◼Only 36 wells for the three aquifers: 9 Aq I,
21 Aq II, and 6 Aq III
◼Wells are from River Estates Mutual Water
Company, Lake View Mutual Water
Company, City of 10000 Buddhas, Flight
Ridge, Army Coprs, Rogina Water
Company, City of Ukiah, Willow and
Millview County Water District.
◼We need to coordinate with the finalized
owners.
DRAFTMonitoring Network for Interconnected Surface Water
(ISW) and GDEs
◼Under development and evaluation
◼Transects will play a critical role
◼Satellite images analysis for GDEs and ISW
DRAFT
Questions?
DRAFT
◼Introduction to GSP Monitoring Network and Instrumentation Updates
◼Outreach Meetings Update
◼GSP Writing and Review:
⚫Review and commenting of draft Chapter 2 and schedule for next deliverables
⚫Revised proposed schedule for chapter delivery and review
◼Future Scenarios
⚫Summary of Scenario Development Survey
⚫Examples of Simulated Future Scenarios
⚫Development of Further Scenarios
Outline
DRAFT
Status Update
◼Public meeting
⚫September 29th (Zoom in English and Spanish). Recordings available on County’s
YouTube account
◼Tribal meeting
⚫October 19th 6-8 PM. Follow-up meeting to be held in December.
◼Stakeholder interviews
⚫1-on-1 interviews ongoing:
➢Sonoma Water (meetings in September and November 2020)
➢Farm Bureau (meeting scheduled in November 18, 2020)
➢City of Ukiah: follow up meeting in November to confirm scenarios and data
⚫PVP working group meeting: September 30th.
⚫Chronic Lowering of GW Levels SMC Working Group: October 28 th.
DRAFT
◼Introduction to GSP Monitoring Network and Instrumentation Updates
◼Outreach Meetings Update
◼GSP Writing and Review:
⚫Review and commenting of draft Chapter 2 and schedule for next deliverables
⚫Revised proposed schedule for chapter delivery and review
◼Future Scenarios
⚫Summary of Scenario Development Survey
⚫Examples of Simulated Future Scenarios
⚫Development of Further Scenarios
Outline
DRAFT
GSP Writing and Review
A GSP has five chapters:
1.Introduction
2.Plan Area and Basin Setting
3.Sustainable Management Criteria
4.Projects and Management Actions
5.Plan Implementation
DRAFT
Status of Chapter 2
◼Components of chapter 2 are under review by the TAC and comments are being included.
◼Missing sections are summarized below:
Missing Subsection Delivery (By the End of month)
Jurisdictional Areas and Land Use: Small water districts’ information to be filled November 2020
Water Resources Monitoring and Management Programs: We need feedback November 2020
County Zoning Plan October 2020
GW contamination, cleanup, and migration: We need your feedback November 2020
Impacts on GDEs Will be written as we progress (Feb 2021)
Updated CommPlan (Notice and Communication)November Board Meeting
Change in GW Storage Will be written as we progress (Feb 2021)
Identification of Interconnected Surface Water Systems Will be written as we progress (Feb 2021)
Identification of Groundwater-dependent Ecosystems Will be written as we progress (Feb 2021)
Water Budget January 2021
Modeling Appendix January 2021
Water Quality Appendix November 2021
DRAFT
GSP Writing and Review
Proposed schedule for the next chapters:
◼Chapter 3: Sustainability Management Criteria
⚫Individual SMCs will be delivered to the TAC as they are discussed
•Water Quality and Subsidence SMC by Nov 2020
•Lowering levels and reduction in storage by February 2021
•Interconnected Surface Water and GDEs by April 2021
◼Chapter 4: Projects and Management Actions
⚫Planned to be done and delivered by Apr-May 2021
◼Chapter 5: Plan Implementation
⚫Planned to be delivered by June 2021
⚫Will be most likely delivered as part of the draft GSP rollout
DRAFT
◼Introduction to GSP Monitoring Network and Instrumentation Updates
◼Outreach Meetings Update
◼GSP Writing and Review:
⚫Review and commenting of draft Chapter 2 and schedule for next deliverables
⚫Revised proposed schedule for chapter delivery and review
◼Future Scenarios
⚫Summary of Scenario Development Survey
⚫Examples of Simulated Future Scenarios
⚫Development of Further Scenarios
Outline
DRAFT
Future Scenarios:
◼Climate change
◼Projects and management actions
◼Both
DRAFT
What is the future baseline scenario?
Section 354.18(c)(3):
…The projected water budget shall utilize the following methodologies and assumptions to estimate future
baseline conditions concerning hydrology, water demand and surface water supply availability or reliability
over the planning and implementation horizon: (A) Projected hydrology shall utilize 50 years of historical
precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow information as the baseline condition for estimating future
hydrology. The projected hydrology information shall also be applied as the baseline condition used to
evaluate future scenarios of hydrologic uncertainty associated with projections of climate change and sea
level rise.
◼The 50-year baseline has not been uniformly assigned among submitted GSPs
⚫GSAs have chosen the most representative periods to form 50+ year baselined for their basins.
◼This baseline will be used as the business-as-usual scenario for future for comparison to other
management scenarios and planning purposes.
DRAFT
Future Scenario Survey: Future Baseline
◼In order to generate a representative future baseline scenario, we need to form a
50-year period from the basin’s historical record. What would be the most
representative 50-year baseline?
Major Comments:
◼Last 50-years may be the least
conservative because it does not take into
account the most recent period→suggest
to repeat the last 25 years
◼Either 25-50 year periods are fine but we
should look at how the water years are
assigned with the Gamma Distribution.
DRAFT
Future Scenario Survey: Climate change
Is:Is not:
Climate time-period analysis || Conditions at the end of
the simulation and each year in between are not the
expected conditions at those years rather how things
may look like around 2030 or 2070
Transient analysis || Forecast aims to produce a
timeseries of results that are representative or the
progression of changes into the future.
Suitable for relative comparison to the historical
simulations and assessing statistical trends and
summary statistics
Suitable to be considered as specific occurrences in
points of time
Suitable to single out changes due to climate change
impacts
Fully capable to project changes to interannual
phenomena like changes to seasonality, rainfall duration
and intensity, etc. due to climate change
Straight forward and recommended by the DWR and
widely used by other basins
Being used or supported by Sonoma Water in their
basins.
Already including a group of GCM/RCP Scenarios in its
development
Equivalently justifiable as using single transient scenarios
unless they are studied for the local region
◼DWR methodology for climate change simulation through precipitation and ET
multipliers:
DRAFT
Future Scenario Survey: Climate change
◼Do you agree with using the DWR recommended approach to conduct the climate
change simulations for the Ukiah Valley Basin GSP? If not, please provide your
suggestion while also considering that additional time and budget needed to
conduct different approaches may become significant.
Major Comments:
◼A transient method would be more
appropriate for evaluating potential impacts
to Lake Mendocino and surface water flows
in the main stem Russian River.
◼Include additional climate change
simulations as may be available to the
consultants and deemed relevant for this
basin.
DRAFT
Future Scenario Survey: Changes to PVP
◼There is an expectation that PVP operations would change during the
implementation period of the GSP. This scenario, or a set of scenarios, would
simulate how those changes would impact the basin and the beneficial uses.
Major Comments:
◼All respondents say it is helpful and we can run Sonoma Water
scenarios.
◼No diversion, partial (winter only) diversion, and run of the river
scenario should be run.
◼Everybody agrees it would not be immediate, responses from 5 to
15 years.
◼Everybody thinks we should combine it with other scenarios,
including climate change, fish flow habitat,
DRAFT
Future Scenario Survey: summary of PVP scenarios
◼LWA to conduct bookending scenarios to gauge the impacts of
the PVP scenarios to the extent possible.
◼Final 3 scenarios that were agreed upon are:
⚫Removal of the dam and no additional flows (worst-case scenario)
⚫No change
⚫Run of the river
◼All scenarios will be set up to start happening in 15 years
◼Difficult issue is to estimate appropriate flows from CVD and PVP
for different scenarios.
DRAFT
Scenario What we are required to have What we have now or plan to have
for GSP Submittal in Jan 2020
Future Baseline A 50-year representation 50-year repeat of historical baseline (could
be changed to two 25-year)
Climate Change Capture impacts of climate change using
best available science and knowledge
2 DWR provided climate period analyses
2030 & 2070
CVD Releases
Best available science and information:
forecast appropriate releases for each
scenario
Historical and future baseline using hard
input measured by gages/ Future changes
taken directly from Sonoma Water ResSim
outputs
PVP
PVP outputs based on reasonable
possibilities to assist with setting SMCs and
developing management actions
Historical/future baseline input to basin from
gages/ Scenarios taken directly from
Sonoma Water ResSim outputs
Overall for other
future scenarios
Best available science and accurate
representation of basin and possibilities to
develop SMCs and MAs
We are reliant on historical inputs and
ResSim outputs for combination of
scenarios assuming no major discrepancies
between their flow and diversion
calculations and our model
Can be fit in
our current
budget
Will be done
unless
evaluation of
input files hints
at
inconsistencies
Future Scenario: To be run for GSP Submittal
DRAFT
Scenario What we are required to have Proposed/possible Improvements for
2027 Milestone
Future Baseline A 50-year representation Coordinate with Sonoma Water to use similar water
years and similar setup as USGS Model
Climate Change Capture impacts of climate change using best
available science and knowledge
Transient simulation of 50-year period using
GCM/RCP/Downscaling method scenarios to be used
in Sonoma basins and the Ukiah basin
CVD Releases Best available science and information: forecast
appropriate releases for each scenario
Using compatible Sonoma ResSim with matching
climate data and diversions as GSFLOW model;
Coordinated with USGS model
PVP
PVP outputs based on reasonable possibilities
to assist with setting SMCs and developing
management actions
Using compatible Sonoma ResSim with matching
climate data and diversions as GSFLOW model;
Coordinated with USGS model
Overall for other
future scenarios
Best available science and accurate
representation of basin and possibilities to
develop SMCs and MAs
Rerun impactful scenarios or additional scenarios with
updated ResSim outputs and compare with USGS
model
Future Scenario: To be Considered for the Next Stage
DRAFT
Questions?
DRAFT
Scenarios related to Projects and Management Actions
◼Changes in Land Use and Ag
◼Urban expansion, population growth, and increase in demand
◼Recycled Water
◼Recharge Projects
◼Changes in Lake Mendocino Release
DRAFT
Future Scenario Survey: Changes in Land Use and Ag
◼General expectation that cannabis cultivation would grow in the basin. This
scenario would simulate such changes and how they might affect the water
resources and beneficial uses within the basin.
Major Comments:
◼Majority of respondents say it is not helpful/maybe helpful or not sure.
◼Review Upper Russian River/Lake Mendocino Reliability report.
◼Increased utilization of water rights in 20 years may cover for these
scenarios.
DRAFTFuture Scenario Survey: Urban expansion, population
growth, and increase in demand
◼These three changes are codependent and will happen to some extent
according to historical trends. This scenario would show the extent of the
changes and how they would impact the basin, its water resources, and
beneficial uses.
Major Comments:
◼Majority of respondents say it is a helpful scenario.
◼Review Upper Russian River/Lake Mendocino Reliability report.
◼Not everyone agrees on the trend or if historical trends are
representative.
◼Combine with PVP, land conversion, and climate change.
DRAFT
Future Scenario Survey: Recharge projects
◼There has been a consensus among TAC members on implementing recharge
projects in the future. This scenario would simulate possible recharge projects
and how they would impact the basin.
Major Comments:
◼Majority of respondents say it is a helpful scenario.
◼Scale and location answer did not converge.
◼Step-wise and in small steps was emphasized for when it may happen.
◼Combine with PVP, RW, Ag land conversion, and climate change.
DRAFTFuture Scenario Survey: Changes in Lake Mendocino
Release
◼Changes in Lake Mendocino releases are expected to happen due to FIRO and
other regulatory measures. This scenario would simulate how these changes
would impact the basin.
Major Comments:
◼Majority of respondents say it is a helpful scenario.
◼Most say to coordinate with Sonoma to the extent feasible.
◼Step-wise and in small steps was emphasized for when it may happen.
◼Combine with PVP, RW, Ag land conversion, and climate change.
DRAFT
Future Scenario Survey: Recycled Water
◼City of Ukiah has been implementing its Recycled Water project and is
scheduled to expand it in the near future. This scenario would simulate the
impacts of increased Recycled Water use within the basin.
Major Comments:
◼Majority of respondents say it is a helpful scenario.
◼Follow the City’s plan.
DRAFT
Discussion on Scenarios Prioritization
◼Which scenario(s) would be more helpful for planning?
◼What scenarios are better to be run in coordination with other
scenarios?
◼Other comments?
DRAFT
Thank you!
Questions?